The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) was organized to track human impacts on the environment and to make connections between the loss of species, the loss of ecosystem function, and the threat this poses to human welfare. Co-sponsored by the World Bank, the United Nations Environment Program and other foundations and agencies, the MEA put over 1000 experts from 95 countries and 22 scientific academies to work on four major questions - what are current conditions and trends; what are the possible futures given these trends; how can we respond; and what is happening at sub-global (regional) levels? This column briefly covers the first three questions.

The current condition is not good. A combination of direct drivers - habitat conversion to agricultural and urbanized space, invasive species, overharvesting, pollution (particularly from nitrogen fertilizers) and climate change; and indirect drivers - human population growth and increased economic activity - are driving species to extinction at a rate much higher than background rates. This is a problem because species from insects to whales play critical roles in maintaining the function of ecosystems that support economic activity and human well-being. For example, honeybees are being decimated by an invasive mite that has developed resistance to all current miticides. The shortage of healthy hives will severely impact fruit and nut production throughout the U.S. causing major job losses and increased food prices.

Given current conditions, the Assessment team developed four possible futures or scenarios that used quantitative and qualitative models to predict economic growth, population growth and human well being 50 years from now given what we know about trends in climate, ecosystems, and people. For climate trends they used the mid-range of IPCC estimates - 2.5¡C by 2050, increase in global precipitation that is regionally variable (more droughts, more floods), increased frequency of extreme events, and sea level up 8-88 cm. The impact of these climate trends are decreased reliability of hydropower, decreased agricultural production in the tropics (and in temperate zones for changes over 2¡C) and adverse effects on fisheries. For ecosystems, 10-20% of forest and grasslands will be converted to agricultural or urban uses and 10-15% of plants will go extinct, probably taking their associated animal species with them. For humans, population will increase to between 8.1 and 9.6 billion, and consumption rates will at least double. The table below summarizes what we can expect over the next 50 years.

Scenario 1: Global Orchestration
Description: globally connected society Characteristics: trade and economic liberalization, aggressive steps to end poverty and inequality, heavy investment in public goods, reactive to environmental problems Economic Growth: Highest Population Growth: Lowest Human Well-Being: Highest

Scenario 2: Order from Strength
Description: focused on political regions Characteristics: concerned with security and protection, emphasizes regional markets, little or no investment in public goods, reactive to environmental problems Economic Growth: Lowest Population Growth: Highest Human Well-Being: North and South Diverge

Scenario 3: Adapting Mosaic
Description: focused on ecosystem regions Characteristics: local political/social institutions strengthened, local ecosystem management proactive on environment Economic Growth: Low Initially Population Growth: 2nd Highest Human Well-Being: Improved

Scenario 4: Technogarden
Description: global society with environmental management Characteristics: uses engineered ecosystems to deliver services, proactive on environment Economic Growth: 2nd Highest Population Growth: 3rd Highest Human Well-Being: Improved

Obviously, a lot is riding on how we choose to respond to the environmental threats facing us. Probably most of us want a future with high economic growth, low population growth and a high level of human well-being. The challenge for those of us in the United States is to grasp the seriousness of the situation and to accept some combination of global orchestration and technogarden as a path. Unfortunately our great wealth* currently insulates us from most environmental impacts, and culturally we find individual action and entrepreneurship much more appealing than cooperation and collective action. These two factors will push us towards the order from strength scenario. The value of the Assessment is that now we know where each path is likely to lead.

Millennium Assessment Homepage - http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx

*Wealth is relative - we may not all have a Lexus, but almost all of us have water from a tap, a toilet to handle our bodily wastes, electricity, food if we are hungry, medical care if we are young or old, free public education, parks, libraries and museums, access to those that govern us, freedom to protest injustice and the chance at a decent job. We are doing much better than the vast majority of other people in the world.

Global Quiz Question: As of May 2005 how many species were listed as either threatened or endangered?

Job of the Month: Campus Organizer - The Nat'l Association of State PIRGs; Nationwide. RESPONSIBILITIES: The Campus Organizer will work with students, faculty members and community members; will train volunteers to conduct educational programs; meet with professors to pan research projects; address City Council members about PIRG issues. STATUS: Full-time position. QUALIFICATIONS: Individuals with a strong commitment to public interest issues, experience in campus organizations or student government, and excellent verbal, written and leadership skills. SALARY: Starting pay is $23, 750; health benefits and paid vacation available. APPLICATION PROCEDURE: Apply online at: http://www.pirg.org/jobs/application/index.html. Application Deadline is July 31.

Special Events/Classes/Programs/Talks
NATIVE GARDEN YARD TOURS- Saturday, June 11 at 10:00am. Wild Ones members will be showing off their native gardens. For more information contact: wildonesmo@yhaoo.com

GLADE RESTORATION- Sunday, June 12 at 8:30am. Meet at the Missouri Dept. of Conservation Bldg (on College Ave.) to carpool to Calloway County. For more information contact the Missouri Native Plant Society, Hawthorn Chapter: npshawth@hotmail.com

BOARDWALK WALKS- Select weekends in June & July from noon to 4:00pm. Enjoy the scenic Rock Bridge, Devils Icebox, and free park-led tours of Connor's Cove.

BATS ON PARADE- Saturday, June 4 (ages 8 and up) and Saturday, June 11 (adults & teens only), both programs start at 7:30pm. Watch endangered gray bats emerge from Devil's Icebox Cave, learn all about bats and enjoy bat-related activities. For more information call: 449-7400 or pick up at Bat Card at the public library

MU Organization Meetings and Contact Information
ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS:
http://www.missouri.edu/~jesse105/committees/pages/environmental.htm

RECYCLING COMMITTEE:
882-3091

SUSTAIN MIZZOU:
http://www.students.missouri.edu/~sustainmizzou 882-7116. Next meeting at the beginning of the semester

STUDENT ENVIRONMENTAL PROFESSIONS ASSOCIATION:
882-7116 Next meeting at the beginning of the semester

Organization Meetings and Contact Information
AUDUBON SOCIETY: 874-3904 / columbia-audubon.missouri.org Meet 3rd Wed 7:30 pm, USGS, 4200 New Haven
BOONE COUNTY SMART GROWTH COALITION: http://smartgrowth.missouri.org/, 1st Wednesdays 7:15 Boone Co Govt Ctr.
CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: 875-0539 or http://peaceworks.missouri.org/
CHOUTEAU GROTTO: http://chouteau.missouri.org/, Meet 1st Wed, 7 pm, The Casteel Building, 1518 Business Loop 70 East
COLUMBIA FOOD CIRCLE: 882-7463 or email hendricksonm@missouri.edu for information.
COLUMBIA PUBLIC WORKS VOL. PROGRAMS: 874-6271 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/Volunteer/Opportunities/#PW
COMMUNITY STORMWATER PROJECT: 884-8333 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/PublicWorks/StormWater/cswp.html
ENV EDUCATION WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCES: http://www.conservation.state.mo.us/teacher/workshops/
FRIENDS OF ROCK BRIDGE M. S. P.: 815-9255 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.
GREENBELT COALITION: 442-4789 or http://greenbelt.missouri.org Meet 1st Tuesdays, 7 pm, Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.
MISSOURI ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION: www.meea.org
MISSOURI NATIVE PLANT SOCIETY: npshawth@hotmail.com 2nd Mondays in Jan, Mar, May, July, Sept, Nov at 7:00 p.m., Unitarian Universalist Church, 2615 Shepard Blvd, Columbia, MO.
MISSOURI RIVER COMMUNITIES NETWORK: 443-0292 or http://mrcn.missouri.org/
PEDNET COALITION: email: pednet@pednet.org or http://www.pednet.org
RIVER RELIEF: http://www.riverrelief.org/
ROCK BRIDGE MEMORIAL STATE PARK: 449-7402 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org
SHOW ME CLEAN STREAMS COALITION: (573) 751-4115 ext 3169 or www.mostreamteam.org
SIERRA CLUB: 443-4401 or http://sierra.osage.missouri.org Meet 3rd Tuesdays 7:30 pm Hillel Foundation,1107 University Ave
WILD ONES: 573 882-9909, ext 3257 or email wildonesmo@yahoo.com, http://wildones.missouri.org Meetings 2nd Saturdays.

Answer to Global Quiz: TESS, the Threatened and Endangered Species database System, is a list of global plant and animal species whose populations are at risk. According to TESS, there are currently 1,827 species listed as either threatened or endangered. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service is in charge of establishing Threatened and Endangered Status and provides daily status updates at their site: http://www.fws.gov/endangered/wildlife.html#Species

Feedback - Got an opinion? If we have space, we will consider publishing it. Submit it by email (envstudy@ missouri.edu), snail mail (Environmental Studies, 211 Lowry , MU, Columbia MO 65211), or call Jan Weaver to talk about it (882-7116). MU Environmental Network News is published by MU's Environmental Studies Initiative. All opinions expressed are the responsibility of the editor. Any part of this newsletter may be copied for distribution but please give us credit.

Interested in an Environmental Career? For information on courses, majors, and careers in the environmental field, contact Jan Weaver at envstudy@missouri.edu, or visit: http://web.missouri.edu/~esiwww/index.html

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