The unusual February cold (~ 2¡ C colder than average) and rash of winter storms we have been experiencing in the midwest is just the sort of thing that has some people in my circle of acquaintances questioning the idea that the earth is warming up. However global climate change does not predict a uniform warming at a uniform rate of every region of the globe. For example, Europe depends on the Gulf Stream for its mild climate (mild for its latitude anyway). The Gulf Stream is pulled north by an ocean current "pump" that depends on dense salty water in the Arctic sinking down and flowing south. If the Arctic melts, the salty water will be diluted by fresh, it will stop sinking, the Gulf Stream wonÕt be pulled northwards, and Europe will become more like Canada.

Northern hemisphere temperature records based on tree rings, coral growth, ice cores, historical records, and more recently, thermometers, show that global temperatures cooled about 0.2¡ C between 1000 AD and the mid-20th century. Since then temperatures have increased by 1.0¡ C, or about five times the amount that temperature dropped in the previous 1000 years. Ocean surface temperatures have gone up ~ 0.65¡ C, satellite observations show a 10% decrease in global snow and ice, there has been a two week reduction in the duration of ice on lakes and rivers in the northern hemisphere, average sea level has risen 0.1 to 0.2 m, and there has been a significant increase in the heat content of the ocean (it takes 1 calorie of heat energy to raise the temperature of a gram of water 1¡C - imagine how much heat it must have taken to raise the temperature of the whole ocean).

When the changes in global temperature are compared with a variety of possible causes, including increases in carbon dioxide (CO2), variation in solar output, and aerosols from burning coal, the factors that explain most of the recent change in global temperature are the increase in CO2, which explains the overall warming trend over the last century, and the aerosols from fossil fuels, which account for a cooling trend in the 1950's, 60's and 70's. Once the aerosols were cleaned up (somewhat) by the Clean Air Act, the warming trend kicked in again. Solar output, so far, has not been shown to be a significant factor in this centuryÕs warming event.

But getting back to our weather, the unusually cold February notwithstanding, the trend over the last 20 years has been towards warmer winters in the central U.S., at the rate of about 1¡ C per decade, in fact this winter warming probably accounts for most of the annual increase of 0.2¡ C per decade for the last 20 years. This winter warming is consistent with the pattern of warming we could expect from increased greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas models also predict more winter precipitation. We are not seeing that pattern in the central states yet, but the number of winter storms that blew through here in February may become our "normal" weather if we are indeed experiencing global warming.

And speaking of future weather, the two most widely used models for predicting regional climate change given global warming both have Missouri going south. However, it is still a toss up whether we go east or west. The Hadley model places Missouri in Tennesee's climate by 2030 (only 27 years away), and in South Carolina's by 2090. The Canadian model predicts a drier future for the state, with Missouri's temperature and rainfall more like Oklahoma's in 2030, and like Texas's in 2090.

For more information
Central Region Historical Data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/CE.html
International Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policy Makers: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf
Climate Change Impacts on the US: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/default.htm

Bio Regional Quiz: What butterflies can you start looking for in March?

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Special Events/Classes/Programs/Talks
LIFE SCIENCES WEEK PANEL ON CONSERVATION BIOLOGY: Tuesday March 4, 1 - 3 pm, Bush Auditorium, Cornell Hall. Protecting Natural Systems from Genetic Pollution
RENEWABLE ENERGY CONFERENCE: Thursday March 6, 8:15 am - 5 pm, Holiday Inn Expo Center, $20 Registration. Growing the Rural Economy with Renewable Energy: Windfarming and Bioenergy - New Crops for Missouri Farms. Sponsored by League of Women Voters, MO DNR, MO Dept Ag, US Dept Energy http://www.dnr.state.mo.us/energy/renewables/re-conference.htm#program
FISHERIES & WILDLIFE SEMINAR: Friday March 7, 3:15 pm, Ag 2-6. Missouri River: Bare-knuckled Politics and Cultural Change - Only in America. Dan Witter, MO Dept Conservation.
GARDEN DESIGN WORKSHOP: Saturday March 8, 10 am, Public Library. Garden design workshop by Martha Folk, a landscape designer of Insite, Inc., sponsored by Wild Ones
PRAIRIE RESTORATION WORKDAY: Saturday March 8, 10 am - 4 pm. Prairie Forks (7 mi E of Kingdom City). Call or email Carol at 573-449-5515; cdwons@flatbranch.com
BACKYARD HABITATS: Monday, March 10, 7:00 pm at the Unitarian Church at 2615 Shepard Blvd. Dr. Charles Nilon, sponsored by Native Plant Society. SIMPLICITY CLASS: Wednesdays, 7-8:30 p.m. March 12-April 23. ($10/$5 students) Center for Sust. Living
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LECTURE SERIES: Thursday March 13, 4 pm 106 LeFevre. Scott Robinson
DUNMIRE LECTURE: Thursday March 13, 7 pm (reception at 6). Conservation Hall, ABNR. Is Habitat Fragmentation Causing the Decline of Forest Birds? Scott Robinson, University of Illinois
FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE SEMINAR: Friday March 14, 3:15 pm, Ag 2-6. Threatened and Endangered Mussel Recovery in Ozark Streams. Andy Roberts, US Fish and Wildlife Service.
FORESTRY SEMINAR: Friday March 14, 3 pm, 123 ABNR. Holocene History of Climate, Vegetation, and Fire in the Northern Great Plains Eric Grimm, Illinois State Museum
ENV. ISSUES IN THE 2003 MO LEGISLATIVE SESSION: Tuesday, March 18, Hillel Found, 1107 University Ave. Josh Campbell, Missouri Votes Conservation and Carla Klein, Sierra Club. sponsored by Sierra Club
INVASIVE PLANTS: Tuesday March 18, 7 pm, Public Library Conf Room B, Friends of Rock Bridge Park
WEST NILE VIRUS TALK: Friday March 21, 1:15, ReynoldÕs Alumni Ctr. Columns A&B. Duane J. Gubler, CDC Fort Collins, sponsored by MU Department of Entomology

MU Organization Meetings and Contact Information
ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL: Mon Mar 17, 3 pm 218 Schweitzer
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES EXEC COM: 882-7116, Thursday March 13, 11 am 207 Lowry
RECYCLING COMMITTEE: 882-3091
STUDENT SIERRA CLUB: 882-7116, Wednesdays 5:30 pm, 105 General Classroom Bldg

Organization Meetings and Contact Information
AUDUBON SOCIETY; 874-3904 / columbia-audubon.missouri.org Meet 3rd Wed 7:30 pm, USGS, 4200 New Haven
BONNE FEMME WATERSHED PARTNERSHIP; 874-1637 or email phoeniwolf@yahoo.com
BOONE COUNTY SMART GROWTH COALITION; http://smartgrowth.missouri.org/, 1st Wednesdays 7:15 Boone Co Govt Ctr. CHOUTEAU GROTTO; http://chouteau.missouri.org/, Meet 1st Wed, 7 pm, Community Room of the Boone Electric Coop
COLUMBIA FOOD CIRCLE; 882-7463 or email hendricksonm@missouri.edu for information.
COLUMBIA PUBLIC WORKS VOLUNTEER PROGRAMS; 874-6271 or http://www.ci.columbia.mo.us/dept/pubw/
COMMUNITY STORMWATER PROJECT: http://www.GoColumbiaMo.com/PublicWorks/StormWater/cswp.html
ENV EDUCATION WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCES: http://www.conservation.state.mo.us/teacher/workshops/
FRIENDS OF ROCK BRIDGE STATE PARK; 474-7429 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ Meet 4th Tuesdays, 7 pm
GREENBELT COALITION; 442-4789 or http://greenbelt.missouri.org Meet 1st Tuesdays, 7 pm, Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.
MISSOURI HEARTWOOD; 443-6832 or http://www.heartwood.org/MO/ Meet Tuesdays, 7:30 pm -1027 E. Walnut.
MISSOURI NATIVE PLANT SOCIETY; npshawth@hotmail.com Meet every other second Monday (Jan, Mar, May, July, Sept, Nov) at 7:00 p.m., usually at MDC Fish and Wildlife Research Center, 1110 S. College Ave., Columbia, MO.
MISSOURI RIVER COMMUNITIES NETWORK; 443-0292 or http://mrcn.missouri.org/
PEDNET COALITION; email: pednet@pednet.org or http://www.pednet.org
ROCK BRIDGE MEMORIAL STATE PARK; 449-7402 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org
SHOW ME CLEAN STREAMS COALITION; (573) 751-4115 ext 3169 or www.mostreamteam.org
SIERRA CLUB; 443-4401 or http://sierra.osage.missouri.org Meet 3rd Tuesdays 7:30 pm Hillel Foundation, 1107 University Ave
SMART GROWTH COALITION; tomvmoran@yahoo.com Meet 1st Wednesdays, 7:15 pm, Boone County Government Bldg.
WILD ONES; 499-3749 or email wildonesmo@yahoo.com, http://wildones.missouri.org Meetings 2nd Saturdays. Call for location

Answer to BioRegional Quiz: Zebra swallowtails overwinter as pupae and begin to emerge in late March in Missouri woods. Check out Rock Bridge State Park, Cosmo Park or Three Creeks Conservation Area to see swallowtails, pussy willows, fern fiddleheads, redbuds, spicebush, water striders and other harbingers of spring.