Some good news may have slipped under the radar this summer. According to a letter in Science (April 9,2004), sometime in 2004, more than half the world's population will be reproducing at or below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. The news is remarkable because in 1950, the median fertility rate was around 5.3, and almost no populations were at the 2.1 mark. Without this dramatic decline in birth rate, the current population would be around 10 billion instead of 6.3 billion. There would be 1/3 less food per person, a billion more people in water stressed countries, and far fewer acres of forest and schools of fish in the seas.

The decrease in per capita birth rates (fertility) in the U.S. and western Europe, was due to investments in reproductive research and health care, and an increase in women's education and opportunities, both of which increased access to birth control. On average, fertility declined 44% to between 1.4 (Europe) and 2 (U.S.) children per woman. In China, coercive restrictions on family size led to a decreased birth rate, so that average fertility went from 6.2 to 1.8 children per woman, a 71% decrease. In eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, decreases in fertility were due to the ready availability of abortion and the grim circumstances of daily life. More recently, family planning programs in developing countries, along with increased female literacy, access to capital, to jobs and the right to vote, have dramatically decreased fertility. Even some predominantly Islamic countries have shown significant declines in per capita birth rates. Iran's fertility rate went from 7 to 2.3, and Turkey's rate went from 6.9 to 2.4, a more than 50% drop in fertility rates for both countries.

Africa is still the hard case, but average fertility has dropped from 6.2 to 4.9 children per woman, with most of the decrease in the countries of north Africa. This is significant progress in a region with so few resources. But even Africa has its hard cases. There are ten countries out of 190 in the world, where fertility rates have actually gone up, and all are in Africa - Guinea Bissau, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Uganda all had an increase in fertility of from 3 to 26% in the last 50 years. Depending on the country, the average woman gives birth to from 5.9 to 8 children. This fertility rate puts a serious strain on resources, one that is reflected in an infant mortality rate 30% higher than that of the rest of Africa (11.4% vs 8.8% for Africa) and twice as high as the world's (5.5%).

The costs of this high fertility don't just fall on the newborns of these countries. Of the ten, five - Angola, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone and Liberia - show up on a list of 34 countries identified as conflict hotspots (from lists compiled by the Council on Foreign Relations, World Vision and Plough Shares). So although they only make up 2.6 % of the world's 190 countries, they constitute 15% of the hot spots. If you add countries who have had no change in fertility rates in the last 50 years, or ones where the decrease in fertility rates was well below the average for their regions - Burundi, Somalia, Kenya, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Pakistan - you have nearly a third of global hot spots from just 6% of the world's countries.

Obviously there are other underlying causes to global conflict, but there does appear to be a clear relationship between fertility rates and a country's likelihood of becoming a global headache. The lack of women's access to education, jobs and family planning - evident from a country's high fertility rate - probably reflects serious human rights issues for the country as a whole. In other words, it won't just be the women whose rights are being abridged. Other groups, whether because of religion, tribal affiliation, ethnic group or race, are probably also being discriminated against. Now put that together with the farmer who has to subdivide his fields among four sons and their families, or share his water with twice as many people as his father did, or graze his animals on just a third of the pasture he used to have access to, and you have everything you need to join the hot spot club.

So, the good news is that we are on track to manage human population growth. The question is, can we get there fast enough . . . For more on the connection between population growth and conflict -
http://www.populationaction.org/resources/publications/securitydemographic/index.html

BioRegional Quiz: 3.5 inches long, average 30 mph, gluttons for sugar water, will travel 18 hours non-stop across the Gulf of Mexico to get to winter feeding grounds - any ideas?

Job of the Month: Fishery Observer - A.I.S, Inc.; Woods Hole, MA. Responsibilities: Observer will be working at sea collecting data and biological samples for the National Marine Fisheries Service; will identify, weigh, measure and take age samples of caught species; will also record sightings and accidental takes of marine mammals, turtles and birds; and collect information about vessel, gear and economics. A paid three week training session includes instruction in sampling protocol, gear, fisheries, safety training and species identification. Status: Program commitment is at least one year. Trips at sea vary from one to fourteen days, pay is divided by hours worked on land and sea. Qualifications: B.S. in Biology or Marine Biology; U.S. citizen or non-citizen legally residing in U.S. for 2 years; willingness to commit to program for at least 1 year; able to handle extreme sea conditions; must have own transportation. Experience at sea and with marine research preferred, but not required. Salary: Pay starts at $165 per sea day and $12/land hour. Benefits include health and dental, vacation, sick and holiday pay. Application Procedure: Next training session is scheduled for September 13, 2004, applications should be in before this date. Send resume and references to: donald.macisaac@noaa.gov or mail to Observer Program, NEFSC, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543 or fax to: 508-495-2066. For a full job description visit: www.aisobservers.com

Special Events/Classes/Programs/Talks
WILD CAVE TOURS: Aug to Oct. Space Limited. Register Now! $25. (573) 449-7402. Information on cave tour difficulty, fitness and equipment requirements, what to expect at http://www.mostateparks.com/ rockbridge/cave.htm (Rock Bridge Memorial State Park)
MISSOURI BIRD CONSERVATION INITIATIVE CONFERENCE: Aug 6 & 7, Holiday Inn Select. $30 Registration Fee. http://www.mobirds.org/MoBCI.htm
METEOR VIEWING: Thursday, August 12, call Greg Leonard for more info (573) 443-8263. (Sierra Club)
STREAM LIFE WORKSHOP: Saturday, August 14, 9 am, Devil's Ice lot at Rock Bridge Memorial State Park learn about stream life. Test new investigative skills at a nearby stream. (Friends of Rock Bridge MSP)
MORNING BIKE RIDE: Saturday, August 14, McBaine to Rocheport, call Diana Townsend for more info (573) 815-9028. (Sierra Club)
LANDSCAPING WITH NATIVE PLANTS: Tuesday, August 17, 7:30 pm- Meet at the Hillel Foundation to listen to speaker Linda Beamer of Wild Ones, a native landscaping organization. (Sierra Club)
TWILIGHT FESTIVAL: Thursday nights all September, 6-8 pm, Downtown Columbia. Come for food, fellowship and music and an opportunity to hook up with lots of community groups.
PARK PATROL TRAINING: Thursday Sept 16, 6-8 pm City Hall. http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/Volunteer/ Opportunities/Park_Patrol/index.html
HERITAGE FESTIVAL: Sept 18 & 19, Nifong Park Hwy 63 and AC exit W. 19th Century artisans demonstrate their crafts, traditional music and foods, lots of community groups.
ORIENTEERING WORKSHOP: Saturday Sept 18, 9 am, Devil's Ice Box Parking Lot, Rock Bridge Memorial State Park. Learn how to find your way around unfamiliar terrain with nothing but a compass and a map. (Friends of Rock Bridge Memorial State Park)
MARCH FOR ROCK BRIDGE MSP: Sunday Oct 3, 1 pm, Devil's Ice Box Parking Lot, Rock Bridge Memorial State Park. Orienteering Meet $20, $15 for full-time students. EcoKnowledge Match - Free, great Family Event. More info at: http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ (Friends of Rock Bridge MSP)

Organization Meetings and Contact Information
AUDUBON SOCIETY: 874-3904 / columbia-audubon.missouri.org Meet 3rd Wed 7:30 pm, USGS, 4200 New Haven
BOONE COUNTY SMART GROWTH COALITION: http://smartgrowth.missouri.org/, 1st Wednesdays 7:15 Boone Co Govt Ctr.
CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: 875-0539 or http://peaceworks.missouri.org/
CHOUTEAU GROTTO: http://chouteau.missouri.org/, Meet 1st Wed, 7 pm, Community Room of the Boone Electric Coop
COLUMBIA FOOD CIRCLE: 882-7463 or email hendricksonm@missouri.edu for information.
COLUMBIA PUBLIC WORKS VOL. PROGRAMS: 874-6271 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/Volunteer/Opportunities/#PW
COMMUNITY STORMWATER PROJECT: 884-8333 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/PublicWorks/StormWater/cswp.html
ENV EDUCATION WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCES: http://www.conservation.state.mo.us/teacher/workshops/
FRIENDS OF ROCK BRIDGE M. S. P.: 815-9255 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63S
GREENBELT COALITION: 442-4789 or http://greenbelt.missouri.org Meet 1st Tuesdays, 7 pm, Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.
MISSOURI NATIVE PLANT SOCIETY: npshawth@hotmail.com 2nd Mondays in Jan, Mar, May, July, Sept, Nov at 7:00 p.m., Unitarian Universalist Church, 2615 Shepard Blvd, Columbia, MO.
MISSOURI RIVER COMMUNITIES NETWORK: 443-0292 or http://mrcn.missouri.org/
PEDNET COALITION: email: pednet@pednet.org or http://www.pednet.org
RIVER RELIEF: http://www.riverrelief.org/
ROCK BRIDGE MEMORIAL STATE PARK: 449-7402 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org
SHOW ME CLEAN STREAMS COALITION: (573) 751-4115 ext 3169 or www.mostreamteam.org
SIERRA CLUB: 443-4401 or http://sierra.osage.missouri.org Meet 3rd Tuesdays 7:30 pm Hillel Foundation, 1107 University Ave
WILD ONES: 499-3749 or email wildonesmo@yahoo.com, http://wildones.missouri.org Meetings 2nd Saturdays. Call for location

Answer to BioRegional Quiz: Hummingbirds! The ruby throated humming bird will start heading south in late August and on through September. If you like, you can help them along by providing sugar water (1 part sugar to 4 or 5 parts water) in a humming bird feeder (available at garden and hardware stores).
Spring Migration Map - http://www.hummingbirds.net/map.html
Lots of information and a nifty hummingbird courser - http://www.hummingbirds.net/

Feedback - Got an opinion? If we have space, we will consider publishing it. Submit it by email (envstudy@missouri. edu), snail mail (Environmental Studies, 211 Lowry , MU, Columbia MO 65211), or call Jan Weaver to talk about it (882-7116). MU Environmental Network News is published by MU's Environmental Studies Initiative. All opinions expressed are the responsibility of the editor. Any part of this newsletter may be copied for distribution but please give us credit.

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