Global Trends 2015: The CIA and the Environment by Jan Weaver
This past December, the National Foreign Intelligence Board, under the direction of the CIA, published “Global Trends 2015: A dialogue about the future with non-governmental experts”. This publication was prepared to give the incoming administration a ‘heads-up’ on the the issues that are likely to be critical in the next 15 years. The panel assembled by the CIA identified seven significant drivers: 1) Demographics; 2) Natural Resources and the Environment; 3) Science and Technology; 4) Global Economy and Globalization; 5) National and International Governance; 6) Future Conflict; and 7) Role of the U.S. If you are interested in reading the entire document. For now, I would just like to focus on what the CIA thinks is likely to happen with the environment.
Although the world’s population will exceed 7 billion in 2015, global grain supplies should be adequate to feed the world’s population. However, problems with infrastructure, distribution, political instability and chronic poverty will mean continued malnourishment for parts of the world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. There will also be potential for famine in countries with repressive governments or internal conflict. The future for genetically modified or GM crops in food production is currently clouded by popular opposition.
Competition for fresh water has the most potential for causing local and regional conflicts. About half of the world’s rivers are shared by more than one country, and over 30 nations receive a third of their water from outside their borders. The problem is particularly serious between Pakistan and India, for Turkey, which proposes to build dams across rivers that supply Syria and Iraq, and for Ethiopia and Sudan, which control the watersheds of the upper Nile. Over pumping of ground water is also a serious concern. China’s water table is falling by 5 feet a year and India’s is falling by 3-10 feet per year. By 2015, many developing countries will not be able to maintain current levels of irrigated agriculture, so national food security will be seriously affected.
While industry will become more energy efficient, economic and population growth will mean a 50% increase in energy use, from 75 million barrels of oil/day to 100 million. Asia will drive this expansion, replacing North America as the leading consumer by region. Oil and natural gas will dominate , followed by coal and renewables (wind, solar, bio-fuels). Nuclear will hold constant or decline. Technological advances in locating and recovering fossil fuels means that 80% of oil and 95% of natural gas stocks are still in the ground.
Pollution and other environmental issues will become mainstream, particularly in the developed world. Localized problems, ozone, hazardous wastes, air and water pollution will be managed in developed countries without becoming a major constraint on economic growth. Developing countries will be less able to deal with these and their air and water quality is likely to become significantly worse.
Progress on global environmental challenges will be uneven. International treaties covering the ozone holes over the poles are on track to eliminate the problem within the next 50 years. However, because of the lag time in response to the problem, the holes will continue to expand for the next two decades, leaving parts of Australia, Argentina and Chile vulnerable to increased levels of UV radiation. New agreements are being developed to phase out persistent organic pollutants (POPs) like DDT and PCBs. Global warming will continue to challenge the international community as indicators of climate change - disappearing polar ice packs, sea level rise, and extreme weather - occur. However, the Kyoto Protocol is unlikely to be ratified in its current form.
For those of us concerned about the environment, and the human suffering caused by environmental degradation, there is certainly plenty to be concerned about. And, if you stop and look at the big picture, as this CIA report does, it can be extremely discouraging. However, while it is true you can’t change the world all by yourself, it is also true that the world can’t change without you. Whatever you are doing now - keep it up! Whatever you have thought of doing - now is the time!
BioRegional Quiz: When is the earth closest to the sun? (its perihelion)
Job of the Month: Missouri Botanical Garden (117-V24) Educational Specialist DEPT/DIV: Gateway Greening, Inc. STATUS: Full-time, Regular. Coordinates all aspects of outreach educational programming in K-12 schools including scheduling of programs; installation of vermicomposters, indoor and outdoor gardens; curricula development; program preparation; and instructional implementation. Coordinate volunteer and Master Gardener and Composter workshop presentations to classrooms and workshops for teachers. Qualifications include a Bachelor's degree in science or related field, plus one year related experience. Teaching experience helpful. Horticultural experience a plus. Computer skills and excellent communication skills a must. Public relations and community social work skills, volunteer coordination experience, composting, and gardening knowledge a plus. Some weekend and evening hours required. To apply MAIL: Mail resumes to Human Resource Management, 2345 Tower Grove Ave., St. Louis, MO 63110. IN PERSON: Applications available between 9:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m., Monday through Friday at the above address in the Shoenberg Administration Building. FAX: 314-577-9597 EMAIL: jobs@mobot.org
Information on other Environmental Positions is available from the MU Environmental Studies Program, 211 Lowry (inside the Honors College), 882-7116, envstudy@showme.missouri.edu or at www.ejobs.org
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Feedback - Got an opinion about something we’ve written, or about a current environmental issue? If we have space, we will consider publishing it; submit it by email (envstudy@showme.missouri.edu), snail mail (Environmental Studies, 211 Lowry Memorial Union, MU, Columbia MO 65211), or call Jan Weaver to talk about it (882-7116). MU Environmental Network News is published by MU’s Environmental Studies Initiative. All opinions expressed are the responsibility of the editor. Any part of this newsletter may be copied for distribution but please give us credit.