Editor - Jan Weaver

415 Tucker Hall, MU 65211

The Physical Science Basis for Climate Change by Jan Weaver

The recently published 4th Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has prompted a lot of media attention. There has also been backlash from various conservative and libertarian columnists and think tank fellows. I thought it would be useful to provide a summary of the 18 page executive summary for policy makers (which summarizes the complete report), along with a little background on the IPCC and the two organizations it sprang from. I encourage you to go to the report itself and draw your own conclusions - http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers (52 authors)

The evidence of global warming is unequivocal

• Temperature: Global temperature increased from 13.60 °C [56.5 °F] to 14.36°C [57.8°F] or 0.76 °C between 1850 and 2005. Urban heat island effects are local and miniscule - 0.006° C on land and zero on the ocean. New analyses of satellite measurements show warming trends similar to the surface temperature measurements. [periods over which temperatures are compared are chosen based on available data - not to fit a preconceived hypothesis]
• Rain : There is increased precipitation in eastern North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. There is decreased precipitation in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. The frequency of heavy precipitation has increased over most land areas, and droughts are more intense and longer in the tropics and subtropics.
• Wind: There is evidence for an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since 1970, but no clear trends in frequency. Observed changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation are larger than predicted by the models.
• The Sea: The global ocean to depths of 3000 meters is warmer than in the 1960s, because the ocean has absorbed more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system. Sea level has risen an average of 1.8 mm per year between 1961 and 2003, and 3.1 mm per year between 1993 and 2003. Total sea level rise over the last century is 171 mm.
• The Poles: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice mass, though Antarctic sea ice shows no trend. Average Arctic temperatures are increasing at twice the rate of global temperatures, but they vary substantially from decade to decade. Arctic ice has shrunk by 2.7% per decade. Frozen ground has shrunk by 7% in the Northern hemisphere since 1900.
• Paleoclimate: The warmth of the last 50 years is unusual relative to any other 50 year period in the last 1300 years. The last time the poles were this warm for an extended period, 125,000 years ago, sea level was 4 to 6 meters higher.

There is a 90% likelihood that this warmth is due to human produced greenhouse gases.

Six of the seven continents show patterns of warming over the last 50 years that match what is predicted when carbon dioxide and other green house gases are added together with natural forces. They do not match what is predicted when only natural factors are used. Antarctica's temperature has remained within previous ranges.

Without the cooling caused by pollution [especially between the 1950s and 1980s before Clean Air Act Regulations had an effect] and volcanoes, it would be even warmer.

For the next two decades, a warming of 0.2°C per decade is projected given current production of greenhouse gases. Even with greenhouse gases stabilized, because of time lags and feedback loops within the climate system, current trends are likely to continue and intensify for some time. Failure to reduce emissions is likely to result in temperature changes of 3.5°C over the next hundred years.

Who's Who

World Meteorological Organization - WMO - An intergovernmental organization with 188 member states and territories established in 1950, which became a specialized agency of the UN in 1951 dealing with meteorology (weather and climate), hydrology and related geophysical sciences.

United Nations Environment Program - UNEP - Provides leadership and encourages partnerships in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC - Established by the WMO and the UNEP in 1988 to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human caused climate change, its impacts and options for adapting. The assessment is based on existing peer reviewed and published scientific papers. It is open to all UN and WMO members.

Feedback - Got an opinion? If we have space, we will consider publishing it. Submit it by email (envstudy@missouri.edu), snail mail (Environmental Studies, 211 Lowry , MU, Columbia MO 65211), or call Jan Weaver to talk about it (882-7116). MU Environmental Network News is published by MU's Environmental Studies Initiative. All opinions expressed are the responsibility of the editor. Any part of this newsletter may be copied for distribution but please give us credit.

Special Events/Programs/Classes/Talks

COLUMBIA CLIMATE COALITION: Thursday March 8, 7 pm, 223 Townsend. Help plan April 14 Step It Up Campaign

TREE PLANTING: Saturday March 10, noon at the Hinkson Recreation Area on the MU campus. Plant trees and engage in other watershed friendly service activities. Contact John at jrnb66@mizzou.edu for more information or to sign up.

OLD PLANK ROAD CLEAN UP: Sunday March 11, 9:30 am breakfast, 10:30 am clean up, Cooper's Landing. contact riverrelief@riverrelief.org for additional information

SPRING THAW: Sunday March 11, 1-3 pm. Shakespeare's. The Community Garden Coalition invites gardeners, wanna-be gardeners, volunteers, and others interested in community projects and green spaces to a pizza party. Learn about community gardens and giving gardens in Columbia, sign up for a garden plot, volunteer, meet Master Gardeners and share garden stories. Suggested donation $5

BIOFUELS: INITIATIVES, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: Wednesday March 14 through Thursday March 15. This symposium brings nationally and internationally recognized experts to the MU campus to speak about the science behind biofuels, its future paths, and its social, cultural and economic implications. Program and free registration at <http://lifescienceandsociety.missouri.edu/>http://lifescienceandsociety.missouri.edu

CONSERVATION FEDERATION MEETING: Friday March 16 - Sunday March 18. Lodge of the Four Seasons. Registration (by February 11) $20 for Members, $40 for non-Members. To register contact CFM at 728 West Main St., Jefferson City MO 65101 or Phone: (573) 634-2322 or (800) 575-2322 or Fax: (573) 634-8205 . Overnight accomodations - $70 (contact Four Seasons directly at 573/365-3000 or 800/843-5253.

NATIVE PLANT SOCIETY MEETING: Monday March 12, 7 pm, Unitarian Church, 2615 Shepard Blvd. Sybil Amelung on Bats

SERVICE SATURDAY: Saturday March 17, 1-3 pm Rock Bridge Memorial State Park. Help remove invasive plants, pick up litter, take out old fencing. Wear old clothes and bring work gloves. Want to bring a group? Call 815-9255 to make arrangements.

ADVANCING RENEWABLES IN THE MIDWEST CONFERENCE: Wednesday March 28, 8 am to 6 pm. Keynote: Julia Judd, Solar Electric Power. Registration $50 for professionals, $25 for non-professionals. visit http://weather.missouri.edu/webs/index.html to register or for more information

DAY WITH WILDLIFE: Sunday April 1, noon to 5 pm, American Legion post 202 on WW. Wildlife calls, 1:30 and 3:30, Conservation Agents, Stream Table, free kids fishing, nuisance wildlife control information, free tree seedlings. For more information or to register for a table for your organization, call 445-3882 or email jim.loveless@mdc.mo.us.

1st ANNUAL STUDENT ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT CONFERENCE: Monday April 9 - Saturday April 14, Washington University, St. Louis. Environmentalism and Human Rights Activism, Environmental Sustainability on College Campuses, Bio Fuels in the Developing World, Environmental and Societal Impacts of Development Projects, Global Climate Change, Environmental and Societal Impact of Oil Extraction. contact apbingha@artsci.wustl.edu.

BIKE FEST: Tuesday April 10 and Wednesday April 11, MU Campus. Want to help? email amsh58@mizzou.edu

ENVIRONMENTAL CAREER FAIR: Friday April 20, noon to 6 pm, Truman State Office Building, Jefferson City. Visit with agencies and businesses seeking applicant for environmental jobs. Contact Jim Lubbers at jim.lubbers@dnr.mo.gov

COLUMBIA EARTH DAY FESTIVAL: Sunday April 22 Noon to 7 pm, Peace Park and Downtown. Rain Date April 29. Eco Avenue for practical advice, West Village for a spiritual connection to nature, the Kid's Area for family fun and the the stages for entertainment (new! environmentally themed radio plays) To register a booth, pick up a form at the Peace Nook, 804C East Broadway, or visit http://www.columbiaearthday.org. or email mail@midmopeaceworks.org.

Organization Meetings and Contact Information

AUDUBON SOCIETY: 874-3904 / columbia-audubon.missouri.org Meet 3rd Wed 7:30 pm, Unitarian Church, 2615 Shepard Blvd.

BOONE COUNTY SMART GROWTH COALITION: http://smartgrowth.missouri.org/, 1st Weds 7:15 Boone Co Govt Ctr.

CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: 875-0539 or http://peaceworks.missouri.org/

CHOUTEAU GROTTO: http://chouteau.missouri.org/, Meet 1st Wed, 7 pm, The Casteel Building, 1518 Business Loop 70 East

COLUMBIA FOOD CIRCLE: 882-7463 or email hendricksonm@missouri.edu for information.

COLUMBIA PUBLIC WORKS VOL. PROGRAMS: 874-6271 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/Volunteer/Opportunities/#PW

CITIZENS WATERSHED COMMITTEE: (573) 526-8916, Third Tuesdays, 6:30 pm, Daniel Boone Bldg

COMMUNITY GARDEN COALITION: 875-5995 or cgardenc@yahoo.com or http://cgc.missouri.org

ENV EDUCATION WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCES: http://www.conservation.state.mo.us/teacher/workshops/

FRIENDS OF BIG MUDDY: friends@friendsofbigmuddy.org or www.friendsofbigmuddy.org

FRIENDS OF ROCK BRIDGE M. S. P.: 815-9255 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.

GREENBELT LAND TRUST OF MID-MISSOURI: 442-4789, greenbelt.land.trust @gmail.com or http://greenbelt.missouri.org

HABITAT FOR HUMANITY RESTORE: 815-9836, drop off or buy gently used doors, windows, hardware, tools, cabinets, appliances, unopened paint, fixtures - Mon to Fri 8:30 to 3:30, Saturday 8:00 to 1:00 pm, 1906 Monroe St. Columbia

MISSOURI ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION: www.meea.org

MO NATIVE PLANT SOC.: http://columbianativeplants.missouri.org/, 2nd Mon, odd months, 7 p.m., UU Church, 2615 Shepard

MISSOURI RIVER COMMUNITIES NETWORK: 573-256-2602 or www.moriver.org or moriver@coin.org

PEDNET COALITION: email: pednet@pednet.org or http://www.pednet.org

RIVER RELIEF: http://www.riverrelief.org/

ROCK BRIDGE MEMORIAL STATE PARK: 449-7402 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org

SHOW ME CLEAN STREAMS COALITION: (573) 751-4115 ext 3169 or www.mostreamteam.org

SIERRA CLUB: 875-2916 or http://sierra.osage.missouri.org Meet 3rd Tuesdays 7:30 pm Hillel Foundation, 1107 University Ave

WILD ONES: 573 882-9909, ext 3257 or email wildonesmo@yahoo.com, http://wildones.missouri.org Meetings 2nd Saturdays.

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