Untitled Document

MU Environmental Network News

September 2009

Vol. 15 No. 9

Editor - Jan Weaver

208Tucker Hall, MU 65211

Impacts of Climate Change on Missouri by Jan Weaver

Just so I can cut to the chase on this issue, here is the statement by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) on global climate change. I have hi-lighted the sections that cover human-caused global warming.

* AAPG supports expanding scientific climate research into the basic controls on climate specifically including the geological, solar and astronomic aspects of climate change. Research should include understanding causes of past climate change and the potential effects of both increasing and decreasing temperatures in the future.

* AAPG supports research to narrow probabilistic ranges on the effect of anthropogenic CO2 on global climate. (author's note - this means they want to nail down how bad it is going to be when it happens)

* AAPG supports reducing emissions from fossil fuel use as a worthy goal. (However, emission reduction has an economic cost, which must be compared to the potential environmental gain).

* AAPG supports the premise that economies must retain their vitality to be able to invest in alternative energy sources as fossil fuels become more expensive.

* AAPG supports the pursuit of economically viable technology to sequester carbon dioxide emissions and emissions of other gases in a continuing effort to improve our environment and enhance energy recovery.

The AAPG, a membership supported organization of petroleum geologists, businessmen, managers, consultants and academics, has issued a statement that agrees that warming is real and that humans are at least partly responsible, a statement that so clearly goes against their own interests, it is proof that there is no significant scientific debate about human caused global warming. As far as the scientific community is concerned, warming is happening and it is us.

Globally, the Stern Review predicts a 5 to 20% decline in global GDP from the impacts of warming - as much as 4 times the impact of the recent financial meltdown. But what does warming mean for Missouri? Under a business as usual scenario, where little or no effort is made to reduce emissions and CO2 accumulates to 970 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere, mid-Missouri will be more like the Dallas-Fort Worth area by mid century and like the Laredo area by the end of the century. If we make an effort, and hold emissions down so CO2 just accumulates to 550 ppm CO2, it will be like Fort Smith Arkansas by mid century and then like the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Initially, there may be more rainfall, but it will be more episodic and more likely to cause floods than to recharge aquifers and restore soil moisture. However, by the end of the century, increasing evaporation will dry out surface and soil moisture, making the state dryer overall.

Our plant hardiness zones have already changed. In 1990 the lowest range of winter temperatures was -20 to -10°F in the top 2/3 of the state, and -10 to 0°F in the bottom third. Now the coldest it gets in northern Missouri is -10°F, and in the southern most parts of the state it never drops below 0°F (on average). This might seem like a good thing, but warmer winters also mean more insects can overwinter or have multiple generations, including insects that are major agricultural pests. For example, the Southwestern Corn Borer gets into Missouri, but cold temperatures currently limit where it causes damage to the southern part of the state. Warming climate could allow it to become a serious pest north of the Missouri River, where much more of the state's corn is grown.

Inevitably, what we grow would have to change. Currently our leading agricultural products are corn, soybeans, hogs and cattle. In Arkansas the major agricultural products are rice and chickens, with some soybeans, cattle and corn. In Texas, they are cotton, corn, wheat and cattle. Soybeans aren't even on the Texas list. Any transition to new agricultural regimes driven by climate change will be doubly complicated by global markets whipsawed by weather disruptions in other areas, by our inability to change our soil types and topography, and by farmers' ability to change equipment and practices they have honed for decades.

In addition to impacts on agriculture, climate change will shift the habitats of economically important tree species in our $5 billion timber industry. In the Ozarks, we'll see declines in White Oak and Black Oak habitat of a third to nearly half. Pignut Hickory, Sugar Maple and even Dogwoods will also disappear from many places as the climate becomes warmer and drier. These species might be replaced with Bur Oak, Short Leaf Pine (2/3 to 1/2 value of oak), Mockernut Hickory, Eastern Red Cedar and Redbud. What we don't know is how the replacement would happen, but it is not likely that the more tolerant species will move in as fast as the less tolerant species disappear. Instead, as existing trees become more stressed by temperatures and drought, they may become more vulnerable to insects and more likely to die, leaving the extensive forests of the Missouri Ozarks full of standing dead trees, increasing the likelihood of forest fires.

Climatic change will mean better habitat for Vultures, Red-tailed Hawks, Nighthawks, Mockingbirds, Great Blue Herons and Ruby-throated Hummingbirds. On the other hand, Robins, Cardinals, Pileated and Red-headed Woodpecker habitat will decline by 25% in parts of their Missouri range, Black-capped Chickadees, Whippoorwills, and Killdeer habitat will be down by half, and Goldfinch and Baltimore Oriole habitat by 75%. This is just a sampling of Missouri bird species, but birds play a major role in controlling insect pests, and spreading seeds, and the effects of the decline, disappearance or replacement of dozens or more species may have impacts that spread throughout the state's natural and managed communities - forests, grasslands, farms, pastures and cities. We can expect similar effects on other kinds of animals.

Even though we don't live on the sea coasts or in the arctic, global climate change will affect Missourians. It will dry up our streams and rivers, lower our water tables, increase flooding, make several of our most common crops harder to grow, decrease the value of our forests and transform what we think of as typical Missouri ecological communities from the bootheel of the southeast to the loess hills of the northwest. In order to pass on a sound and sustainable economy to our posterity, not to mention cardinals and dogwoods, we must become engaged in the discussion of how to slow and stop climate change. We must be prepared to rethink what is essential to our quality of life and our long term security so that instead of having change forced on us by the inevitable operation of the laws of physics and chemistry, we choose when, where and how to leap into the future.

AAPG Statement - http://dpa.aapg.org/gac/statements/climatechange.cfm

Stern Review - http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm Agricultural Forecasts -http://farmindustrynews.com/mag/farming_climate_change_winners/

Tree Forecasts - http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html

Bird Forecasts- http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/bird/index.html MO Nat Res Conference Findings on Climate Change- http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2009/03/09/changing-face-missouri/

Special Events, Activities and Workshops

· September 15 - FFA Field Day - Bradford Farm, east of Columbia off Rangeline Road - 2008 site for information, http://aes.missouri.edu/bradford/events/ffa-day.php

· September 19 - Jefferson City Clean-up '09 - Noren Access, North Jefferson City - http://www.riverrelief.org/upcoming/

· September 12 to 19 - Mid - Missouri River Camp - a week long series of learning events ending with a massive one day clean-up in Jefferson City, celebrating 20 years of the Stream Team Program - http://www.riverelief.org/events/index.html

· September 20 - Interfaith Care for Creation: Garden Project - Rock Bridge Christian Church, 301 W. Green Meadows Road, 2:30 to 4:30 - mntwelch@yahoo.com

· September 20 - 32nd Annual Heritage Festival and Craft Show - Nifong Park, Columbia - http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/ParksandRec/Activities_and_Programs/heritage-festival.php

· September 24 - National Parks: America's Best Idea - View a Concert from NY Central Park launching the broadcast of Ken Burns' film on the National Parks, 5:30 - 8:30 - http://www.mdc.mo.gov/areas/cnc/runge/

· September 26 - Mushrooms in Mid-MO - Rock Bridge Memorial State Park, Columbia - http://www.dnr.mo.gov/calendar/public/calendarParksListAction.do?parkNm=Rock%20Bridge%20Memorial%20State%20Park

· September 26 - Missouri Native Plant Society Annual Banquet - Sir Winston's Restaurant, Fulton, 7 - 10 pm - http://www.missourinativeplantsociety.org/

· September 27 - Lost in the Woods: Orienteering with Map and Compass - Rock Bridge Memorial State Park - http://www.dnr.mo.gov/calendar/public/calendarParksListAction.do?parkNm=Rock%20Bridge%20Memorial%20State%20Park

· October 3 - Devil's Icebox Wild Cave Tour - Rock Bridge Memorial State Park, Columbia - http://www.dnr.mo.gov/calendar/public/calendarParksListAction.do?parkNm=Rock%20Bridge%20Memorial%20State%20Park

· October 7-9 - Missouri Trail Summit - Springfield MO - http://mopark.org/displayconvention.cfm?conventionnbr=6992 · October 17 - Columbia Sustainable Living Fair - Student Commons, Columbia College, 10 am to 6 pm - Columbia's premier sustainable living education event, workshops, booths, keynote address, all free of charge - www.slfcolmbia.org or 573-875-0539

· October 24 - Fall Color Hike - Rock Bridge Memorial State Park, Columbia - http://www.dnr.mo.gov/calendar/public/calendarParksListAction.do?parkNm=Rock%20Bridge%20Memorial%20State%20Park

· November 7 - 8th Annual Statewide Environmental Summit - William Woods University, Fulton, 8:30 am - 3 pm (tentative times) - http://movotesconservation.org/MVCEFsummit.aspx

· November 10 - Community Forum on Clean Energy - Stephens College, Columbia, 6:30 pm - http://www.moenviron.org/energyforums.aspx

· December 1 - LEED Core Concepts and Strategies - General Services Building, MU Campus, Columbia, 8:30 - 5:00 pm - http://www.greenbuild365.org/coursedetail.aspx?ID=90000040

· ----Missouri Department of Conservation Central Region events - http://mdc.mo.gov/areas/central/

Organization Meetings and Contact Information

AUDUBON SOCIETY: 874-3904 / columbia-audubon.missouri.org Meet 3rd Wed 7:30 pm, Unitarian Church, 2615 Shepard Blvd.

BOONE COUNTY SMART GROWTH COALITION: http://smartgrowth.missouri.org/, 1st Weds 7:15 Boone Co Govt Ctr.

CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: 875-0539 or http://www.midmopeaceworks.org/sustainableliving.php

CHOUTEAU GROTTO: http://chouteau.missouri.org/, Meet 1st Wed, 7 pm, The Casteel Building, 1518 Business Loop 70 East

COLUMBIA CLIMATE CHANGE COALITION: 573-529-9273, Meet 3rd Thu http://www.columbiaclimatechangecoalition.org/

COLUMBIA FOOD CIRCLE: 882-7463 or http://foodcircles.missouri.edu/sources.htm

COLUMBIA PUBLIC WORKS VOL. PROGRAMS: 874-6271 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/Volunteer/Opportunities/#PW

COMMUNITY GARDEN COALITION: 875-5995 or cgardenc@yahoo.com or http://cgc.missouri.org 3rd Thursdays 7 pm Columbia Public Library

ENV EDUCATION WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCES: http://www.conservation.state.mo.us/teacher/workshops/

FRIENDS OF BIG MUDDY: friends@friendsofbigmuddy.org or www.friendsofbigmuddy.org 2nd Tues, 7 pm, Bryant Cabin

FRIENDS OF ROCK BRIDGE M. S. P.: 815-9255 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.

GET ABOUT COLUMBIA: http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/GetAbout_Columbia/index.php

GREEKS GOING GREEN: new group for fraternities and sororities at MU sauzp5@mizzou.edu

GREEN SANCTUARY: 1st Fridays, 7:00 pm UU Church 2615 Shepard Blvd alternates green movies and discussions g_baka2002@yahoo.com

GREENBELT LAND TRUST OF MID-MISSOURI: 442-4789, greenbelt.land.trust @gmail.com or http://greenbelt.missouri.org

HABITAT FOR HUMANITY RESTORE: 815-9836, drop off/ buy 1906 Monroe St. Columbia Mon to Fri 8:30 to 3:30, Sat 8-1 1pm,

MISSOURI ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION: www.meea.org

MO NATIVE PLANT SOC.: http://columbianativeplants.missouri.org/, 2nd Mon, odd months, 7 p.m., UU Church, 2615 Shepard

MISSOURI RIVER COMMUNITIES NETWORK: 573-256-2602 or www.moriver.org or moriver@coin.org

MISSOURIANS FOR SAFE ENERGY: http://www.mosafeenergy.org/Content/ first Tuesdays, 7:15, Peace Nook on Broadway

PEDNET COALITION: email: pednet@pednet.org or http://www.pednet.org

RIVER RELIEF: http://www.riverrelief.org/

ROCK BRIDGE MEMORIAL STATE PARK: 449-7402 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org

SHOW ME CLEAN STREAMS COALITION: (573) 751-4115 ext 3169 or www.mostreamteam.org

SIERRA CLUB: 875-2916, http://missouri.sierraclub.org/osage/index.htm 3rd Tuesdays 7:30 pm Hillel Found., 1107 University Ave

SUSTAIN MIZZOU: http://students.missouri.edu/~sustainmizzou/

WILD ONES: 573 882-9909, ext 3257 or email wildonesmo@yahoo.com, http://wildones.missouri.org Meetings 2nd Saturdays.

Feedback - Got an opinion? If we have space, we will consider publishing it. Submit it by email (weaverjc@missouri.edu). MU Environmental Network News is published by MU's Environmental Studies Initiative. All opinions expressed are the responsibility of the editor. Any part of this newsletter may be copied for distribution but please give us credit.

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