Editor - Jan Weaver

208 Tucker Hall, MU 65211

Chafing over Grain: Just a Lot of Chaff?

guest essayist: Jim Carrel

A chance encounter with one of my undergraduate advisees, Yunan, who is from Egypt, led to a discussion about global grain issues. When he mentioned he was going home for the summer break, I asked if his family had had any difficulty getting bread or rice. His response was, "Yeah, there are shortages all of the time, but I don't see why there is a problem. Just look at the cheap prices here for hamburgers and soda and all the food in grocery stores here. And Egypt is the largest rice producer in the Near East. It doesn't make any sense to me."

What we experience in mid-America probably is not a clear indication of the global supply of bread and grain, but what is? Here I briefly look at three topics: the roots of the recent dispute over grain in Egypt; the prevailing situation for grain supplies in Third World compared to the US; and crop forecasts, to see whether current problems with grain availability are real or just a lot of chaff.

Topic 1: Grain in Egypt. Egyptians were among the first to make bread: loaves dating to the time of the Pharaohs 5,000 years ago are displayed in museums (1,2). Today bread continues to be vital for Egyptians: it is eaten at all three meals and it provides much of the daily protein for children and pregnant women (3). For many, especially the poor, bread forms the bulk of a day's nourishment (4). To meet demand, Egypt now imports 40% of its grains, making it second only to Japan as a wheat importer in the world (5).

Egypt is the largest rice producer in the Near East (6), yet lack of irrigation water in some regions and intrusion of salt water from the Mediterranean Sea in the lower Nile Valley limit expansion of rice production (6). Based on current figures (2006-2009), rice production this year in Egypt will be the same as in the previous two years. (7).

The demand for grain constantly increases in Egypt as its population (already 80 million) rapidly grows and as other food, like meat and dairy products, become increasingly unaffordable for most citizens. The situation is exacerbated by enormous price disparities for grains between the world and the Egyptian market - $36 vs $3 for a 110 lb bag of flour. This price disparity has led to chronic shortages as imports dwindle and domestic stocks are diverted abroad to generate much needed cash. (4, 8). The end-result has been mounting local shortages, widespread public unrest, and even deaths from exhaustion or rioting while waiting for food. (4,8).

The Egyptian government, seeking rapid solutions to this domestic food crisis, has invoked more subsidies for grain products and it has banned exporting rice. (4, 8, 9) It also is sponsoring research to find practical alternatives to wheat flour, but practical benefits from this work will not happen very soon. (3)

Topic 2: Global Grain Perspectives. Yunan's conflicting perspectives on food prices and availability as a foreign exchange student at Mizzou seem to be valid. Here in mid-America, he has cheap food, plenty of staples, and short lines at checkouts. But back home in Egypt on summer break he finds staples are scarce, lines are long, there is famine,and much unrest. He stands with his feet in two very different worlds increasingly separated by much more than the traditional variables of language, religion, and politics.

This dichotomy is mirrored in a recent dispute over grain prices between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the US government. In May IMF officials stated that recent rises in energy and commodity prices "have reemerged as a global challenge following a long absence" that "creates potentially significant challenges to economic stability." (10) Most of the inflationary demand for energy and commodities comes from "strong growth in emerging and developing economies, led by China and India." (10). Moreover, "biofuel policies in some advanced economies are spilling over to the price of key food items, particularly corn and soybeans". The IMF estimates that increased demand for biofuels accounts for 70 % of the increase in corn prices and 40 % of the increase in soybean prices" in the world. (10). In response, the Whitehouse stated "biofuel production has played only a small part in food inflation." (11) "US ethanol production from corn accounts for about 20 percent of the rise in corn prices over the last 12 months, but only about 3 percent of the increases in overall food prices." (11)

Despite some wrangling over the data, there seems to be an emerging agreement that the increasing demands and prices for grains and other foodstuffs in the face of limited supplies is creating "a perfect storm." (11, 12) We may be on the threshold of the first global humanitarian emergency driven by shortages of plant products (11, 12). In 7 of the last 8 years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, a pattern never seen before (13). In response, a call for a "second Green Revolution" that will boost global agricultural productivity on existing farm land in order to alleviate world food shortages has been issued. (12)

Topic 3: Grain Forecasts. To get an up-to-date on forecasts for production of grains and related commodities this year, I turned to the USDA and a team of experts at Cornell University's Mann Library (7). Here it is:

Anticipated increase/decrease in production and use of grains in this year (2008-2009) relative to last year (2007/2008), May 2008.

USA World

Commodity Production Domestic use Production Use

Wheat + 16% + 16% + 8% + 3%

Corn &endash; 7% + 1% + 4% + 2%

Rice 0% +1% + 1% + 1%

Soybeans + 20% + 16% + 8% + 4%

At first glance, most of the projections for grain production this year (2008/2009) are positive, which is good for all humanity. But wait! The May-2008 forecast for corn production this summer in the US is down a lot while domestic use is slightly up. What gives? A close read of the detailed forecast reveals corn use in the USA will be greater than production by a whopping 635 million bushels in 2008/2009. Furthermore, ethanol production will use 1/3 of all the corn grown in our nation. A big increase in US domestic consumption will be possible only because exports of corn will be restricted (down by 16%), use of corn as animal feed will decline because of its high cost (down by 14%), and much of the corn already on hand at the beginning of the growing season will be used. As a result, the amount of corn carried over at the end of 2008/2009 will be 53% smaller than last year.

The high demand for and cost of corn is affecting the wheat market in the USA: use of wheat as an animal feedstock in substitution for corn will rise sharply (up 380%) in 2008/2009, and exports of wheat are expected to decline sharply (down 24% from last year). Consumption of wheat by humans (40% of crop production) will continue to rise (+ 10 million bushels). Hence, even though US wheat production is pegged at 2.4 billion bushels, up 16% from 2007/2008, most of this will be consumed this year or carried over to meet strong domestic markets next year.

Globally grain stocks are expected to continue a 2-decade old decline, resulting in about 50 days of grain on hand, the smallest since records have been kept (13). The data indicate that demands for grains are "simply outpacing supply." (13) Prices for commodities in the US have not risen as sharply as in many other nations (13), but if food insecurity intensifies in coming years, the US may be greatly affected by this global crisis. Hence, the grain situation in the next 2-3 years appears to be a substantial problem for the US, not just a lot of chaff. And, tragically, Yunan may find his two cultures converging, an d not because Egypt is catching up to the U.S.

References:

1. Loaf of life. Al-Ahram Weekly Online. Issue 824, 14-20 Dec. 2006. http://weekly.aharam.org.eg/2006/824/chrncls.htm

2. History of Bread. http://www.botham.co.uk/bread/history1.htm

3. A grain of truth. Al-Ahram Weekly Online. Issue 893, 7-13 April 2008. http://weekly.aharam.org.eg/2008/893/fe3.htm

4. E. Knickmeyer. 2008. In Egypt, upper crust get the bread. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/04/AR2008040403937.htm

5. L. R. Brown. 2006. Scarcity crossing national borders. http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/PB2ch3_ss6.htm

6. International Rice Commission. 2004. International Year of Rice--All about rice: Egypt. www.fao.org/rice2004/en/p4.htm

7. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. May 9, 2008. http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//2000s/2008/wasde-05-09-2008.txt. [The USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS) is a collaborative project between Albert R. Mann Library at Cornell University and several agencies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.]

8. R. Kliger. 2008. Cairo grappling with bread crisis. www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintReview/1,2506,L-3520337,00.html

9. AME Info. 2008. Egypt rice prices rise. http://ameinfo.com/145036.html

10. J. Lipsky. 2008. Commodity prices and global inflation. http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2008/050808.htm

11. D. Butler. 2008. US disputes IMF on food prices. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jiEGi1uZbOyKPTY3TcqYbzRZEgOQD90LSAR00

12. N. Fedorhoff. 2008. Seeds of a perfect storm. Science 230:425 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5875/425

13. L. R. Brown. 2008. Why ethanol production will drive world food prices even higher in 2008. www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2008/Update_69_printable.htm

Special Events/Programs/Classes/Talks

THE SECRET LIVES OF OUR BIG MUDDY POLLINATORS: June 10 - 7 pm by Wedge Watkins, Bryant Cabin, www.friendsofbigmuddy.org for directions to the cabin

TWILIGHT FESTIVAL: Thursdays in June from 6-8 pm in downtown Columbia, Family friendly fun at Flat Branch Park

NATURE DETECTIVES: June 12, July 15, August 7 - 9:30 or 10:30 am. A summer program for pre-schoolers and their parents/grandparents/caregivers at Rock Bridge Memorial State Park. reservations 573-875-9255

NATIVE PLANTINGS HOME TOURS: June 14, 10:00 am, 208 Anderson Avenue. Join the Wild Ones on a tour of members homes to see how native plantings are used and get tips on doing them.

MO RIVER CLEANUP IN WASHINGTON MISSOURI: June 14 - a morning clean up followed by music, educational booths and more. call 573.443.0292 or go to www.riverrelief.org for more information

SOL-A-BRATION: June 21, 1 - 8 pm, Columbia Courthouse Square. Music from area artists + displays on alternative energy

FLICKER, FLICKER FIREFLY: June 21, 7:30 pm, Rock Bridge Memorial State Park. reservations required 573-449-7402

6TH ANNUAL BATS ON PARADE EVENTS: Kids go Batty - Cave Tours, Bat Card decorating, Bat Related activities - kids 5-15 and adults, June 22 - 1 - 4 pm, Rock Bridge Memorial State Park; Bat Card decorating, June 28 - 10 am to 1 pm, Columbia Public Library; Great Bat Hangout, all July, Columbia Public Library; Portable Cave and Storytelling, July 13 - 2 pm, Columbia Public Library; Superhero Bats to the Rescue - bat program, bat emergence, cave tour,, for all ages July 26 - 7pm, August 1 - 7:15 pm, August 9 - 7:15 pm, reservations 573-449-7400; Bats are Connected, bats, insects, caves, streams, bat emergence, cave tour for 13 years and up, August 2 - 7:15 pm, August 8 - 7:15 pm, reservations 573-449-7400. http://rockbridge. missouri.org

NATIVE PLANT FIELD DAY: June 26, 4:00 - 8:00 pm, Bradford Farm

Organization Meetings and Contact Information

AUDUBON SOCIETY: 874-3904 / columbia-audubon.missouri.org Meet 3rd Wed 7:30 pm, Unitarian Church, 2615 Shepard Blvd.

BIG CANOE: 573-875-8590 / bryce_crispies@yahoo.com / http://www.bigcanoemo.org/ - Saturday workdays 10-1 at 406 Sanford

BOONE COUNTY SMART GROWTH COALITION: http://smartgrowth.missouri.org/, 1st Weds 7:15 Boone Co Govt Ctr.

CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: 875-0539 or http://www.midmopeaceworks.org/sustainableliving.php

CHOUTEAU GROTTO: http://chouteau.missouri.org/, Meet 1st Wed, 7 pm, The Casteel Building, 1518 Business Loop 70 East

COLUMBIA CLIMATE CHANGE COALITION: 573-529-9273, Meet 3rd Thu http://www.columbiaclimatechangecoalition.org/

COLUMBIA FOOD CIRCLE: 882-7463 or http://foodcircles.missouri.edu/sources.htm

COLUMBIA PUBLIC WORKS VOL. PROGRAMS: 874-6271 or http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/Volunteer/Opportunities/#PW

COMMUNITY GARDEN COALITION: 875-5995 or cgardenc@yahoo.com or http://cgc.missouri.org 3rd Thursdays 7 pm Columbia Public Library

ENV EDUCATION WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCES: http://www.conservation.state.mo.us/teacher/workshops/

FRIENDS OF BIG MUDDY: friends@friendsofbigmuddy.org or www.friendsofbigmuddy.org 2nd Tues, 7 pm, Bryant Cabin

FRIENDS OF ROCK BRIDGE M. S. P.: 815-9255 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org/ Outdoors Bldg, 200 Old 63 S.

GET ABOUT COLUMBIA: http://www.gocolumbiamo.com/GetAbout_Columbia/index.php

GREEKS GOING GREEN: new group for fraternities and sororities at MU sauzp5@mizzou.edu

GREEN SANCTUARY: 1st Fridays, 7:00 pm UU Church 2615 Shepard Blvd alternates green movies and discussions g_baka2002@yahoo.com

GREENBELT LAND TRUST OF MID-MISSOURI: 442-4789, greenbelt.land.trust @gmail.com or http://greenbelt.missouri.org

HABITAT FOR HUMANITY RESTORE: 815-9836, drop off/ buy 1906 Monroe St. Columbia Mon to Fri 8:30 to 3:30, Sat 8-1 1pm,

MISSOURI ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION: www.meea.org

MO NATIVE PLANT SOC.: http://columbianativeplants.missouri.org/, 2nd Mon, odd months, 7 p.m., UU Church, 2615 Shepard

MISSOURI RIVER COMMUNITIES NETWORK: 573-256-2602 or www.moriver.org or moriver@coin.org

MISSOURIANS FOR SAFE ENERGY: http://www.mosafeenergy.org/Content/ first Tuesdays, 7:15, Peace Nook on Broadway

PEDNET COALITION: email: pednet@pednet.org or http://www.pednet.org

RIVER RELIEF: http://www.riverrelief.org/

ROCK BRIDGE MEMORIAL STATE PARK: 449-7402 or http://rockbridge.missouri.org

SHOW ME CLEAN STREAMS COALITION: (573) 751-4115 ext 3169 or www.mostreamteam.org

SIERRA CLUB: 875-2916, http://missouri.sierraclub.org/osage/index.htm 3rd Tuesdays 7:30 pm Hillel Found., 1107 University Ave

SUSTAIN MIZZOU: http://students.missouri.edu/~sustainmizzou/

WILD ONES: 573 882-9909, ext 3257 or email wildonesmo@yahoo.com, http://wildones.missouri.org Meetings 2nd Saturdays.

Feedback - Got an opinion? If we have space, we will consider publishing it. Submit it by email (envstudy@missouri.edu), snail mail (Environmental Studies, 211 Lowry , MU, Columbia MO 65211), or call Jan Weaver to talk about it (882-7116). MU Environmental Network News is published by MU's Environmental Studies Initiative. All opinions expressed are the responsibility of the editor. Any part of this newsletter may be copied for distribution but please give us credit.