Specific Objectives
I. Develop a methodology to:
1. Identify the role of climatic risk in decisions affecting the choice
of economic activities, levels of production and levels of consumption
at the household level.
2. Measure the impact of El Niño event of 1997-1998 in a peasant
community of the Central Altiplano using a similar approach to that developed
by Valdivia and Jetté (1996).
3. Evaluate the information flows, networks, transactions costs, and
mechanisms that rural communities have to access climatic and weather information.
4. Based on the results from objective #3, assist in identifying the
type of climatic information delivery systems best suited for Andean agriculture.
II. Test this methodology in a second community of the Altiplano
region of the Andes.
1. Develop a baseline in a selected community of the Peruvian Altiplano
where data on production and climate from previous years is available.
2. Test the methods of data collection and analysis developed in the
Bolivian Altiplano in Southern Peru to validate our approach for identifying
strategies under climatic risk.
3. To identify current information delivery paths and the factors that
are necessary to improve decisions with forecasting.
Hypotheses
1. Access to resources, stage in the life cycle (age and labor), livestock
assets, quality of resources, and off farm employment are significant
variables in developing distinct economic portfolios.
2. Access to resources, assets, life cycle, networks and experience
with climatic information are predictors of use of forecasts.
3. High transactions costs preclude farmers and households from accessing
climate information.
4. Farmer and household diversification strategies minimize climatic
risk and result in lower net income returns (following
Rosenzweig and Binswanger, 1992).
5. Climatic information will be used only if risk reducing technologies
are available.
Research Setting
We will work in two research sites one in the Province of Aroma in
the Central Bolivian Altiplano and the other in Puno in Southern Peru.
These sites were chosen because detailed production data exists on them
for the early part of this decade. Our first proposed research site is
the Community of San José Llanga in the Province of Aroma, Central
Bolivian Altiplano. It is characterized by a high degree of abiotic perturbations--
periodic droughts, frequent frosts, occasional floods and seasonal wind
erosion (Washington-Allen, 1993). Mean annual precipitation between 1943
and 1990 is about 400 millimeters, with a coefficient of variation exceeding
30 %.
Potential sites in Puno are two peasant communities, Santa María in Ilave, and the community of Apopata in Santa Rosa de Juli. The first is a crop livestock community near Titicaca Lake at an altitude between 3,827 and 3,931 masl. The second community, mostly of alpaca producers is located between 4,070 and 5,300 masl. These communities participated in the PISA project, a research program on agricultural systems funded by IDRC. CIRNMA our collaborating institution in Puno grew from this research program. Historical and in-depth information is available for sample selection (Arguelles and Estrada, 1991).
Household strategies in the Andean region
Framework for analysis
A household production systems and economic portfolio (Valdivia et
al. 1996; Valdivia and Jette, 1995 and 1997). Data collection will be undertaken
on a sample of households at selected sites in Bolivia and Peru. Criteria
for selection include belonging to an area where climatic perturbations
occur, where both crops and livestock are produced and are sensitive to
climatic perturbations. Variability is required with respect to market
linkages and transactions costs, and communal relations, and agroecological
characteristics. We will build on the household approach for cluster analysis
designed in previous research on economic strategies in Bolivia (Valdivia
and Jetté, 1996).
Data collection
Two stages are part of the data collection process: In order to identify
networks, climate and weather perceptions in production decisions and their
timing related to each of the agricultural activities, and to measure transactions
costs, farmer group meetings will take place in each identified community.
Following these participatory rural appraisals, sections on these topics
will be added to the original structured questionnaire about: crop variety
information, spatial diversification and staggered planting by crop, traditional
sources of information for production decisions, networks, costs of accessing
information. Data will be collected from a random sample with replacement
(Deaton, 1995), as was done for the original two samples in Bolivia. We
will interview the same households in San José Llanga to evaluate
the changing strategies and the impact of climatic events in changing the
portfolio composition.
The existence of detailed production data from two previous years in Bolivia, and baseline data from Peru will permit us to gather more detailed information on the use of climatic data than would otherwise be possible. The data gathered in previous research, combined with the data gathered with the research proposed here provides a rich data set to study farmer decisions throughout this decade.
Strategies
Cluster analysis (Valdivia and Jetté, 1996; Aldenderfer and
Blashfield, 1984) using the variables identified in previous analysis (Valdivia
and Jetté, 1996), will be performed to identify current strategies
and the consistency comparing the results to previous clusters (Do households
persist in their initial group?). Previous analysis (Valdivia, forthcoming)
showed the permanence of households in identified groups, by age and adult
equivalent labor units first, and then by access to resources, by their
quality, as well as total net income.
Comparisons between years will be performed with Discriminant Analysis (pair wise comparisons) and Canonical Analysis (more than two groups for three points in time) (Pedhazur, 1997; Aldrich and Nelson,1984). Income change between 1993 and 1995 was analyzed through regression analysis (Valdivia, forthcoming). Regression analysis to explain income change from one rainfall and frost year to another will be explained by factors believed to affect income: diversity index, assets, stage in the life cycle, and quality of resources. This analysis will be repeated to compare the effect of climate change with 1998 -1999. Other multivariate techniques will be used to analyze differences between clusters/groups (strategies) on variables hypothesized to affect or be affected by year (climate). Three production years with different rainfall patterns will be analyzed in Bolivia, and two in Peru.
Diversification
and the portfolios
Diversification indices developed for production in 1993 and 1995 (Valdivia
et al., 1996) will be revised to include climatic and weather risk (drought
and frost) based on historical data and the simulation models. This index
will include a measure of risk to each economic activity, in order for
the index to reflect not evenness in spread of income, but also the amount
of risk attached to each portfolio. This will allow us to test Rosenzweig
and Binswanger hypothesis. We will measure the degree of covariance between
economic activities in each portfolio to determine which ones are more
risky (Rosenzweig and Binswanger, 1992; Reardon et al., 1992).
Impact
of networks and social capital on risk management strategies
The household surveys will provide initial data on the structure and
strength of networks. Questions will be adapted for use in Bolivia from
the "core discussion network items" on the General Social Survey (Marsden,
1987; National Opinion Research Center, 1991). These items will be used
to identify the weak and strong tie networks of farmers and correlated
with response to climatic variation. Using cluster analysis, a typology
of farmers will be developed and set of farmers will be identified for
case studies in the year following the household survey. Measures
of social capital and transactions costs will be constructed from the data
to evaluate their effect on probability of using information.
Impacts
of climatic events on household strategies
Evaluate if the risk reducing strategies
without climatic information yield lower income than those with forecasts.
Models
to predict outcome in crops and livestock with yields based on climatic
forecasts
Experimentation in the real world, although
absolutely necessary is in some circumstances an expensive and time consuming
process with severe problems in controlling variables exogenous to the
experiments (Dent, 1993). In computer modeling, by contrast, experimentation
is easy, cheap and speedy, at least once a suitable model has been developed
(Pandey and Hardaker, 1995). A word of caution is important at this level;
modeling is only an analytical tool and not an end in itself. It is also
worth mentioning that models are at best simple representations of reality
thus they only should be seen as decision support tools (Quiroz et al.,
1998).
A valid model is useful for evaluating scenarios that are difficult to be tested in the real world. This is especially true when assessing the long-term consequences of different management practices or the possible impact of climate change. In such cases, comprehensive models are extremely valuable for formulating and testing hypotheses that otherwise require many years of data.
In this project models of crop growth and livestock models developed and/or adapted to adequately simulate production in the Altiplano will be used to evaluate different production scenarios (see Arce et al., 1994; Quiroz et al., 1994;Tsuji et al., 1994).
Method
to assess impact using a household portfolio approach
The set of strategies identified from
the cluster analysis for each year will be the baseline used to compare
with the net returns obtained with the models under same climatic and weather
events. We will calculate the net economic returns of the household economic
portfolio, including in-kind production for consumption, in each of the
identified strategies, three in the case of Bolivia and two in the case
of Peru. Sensitivity analysis will assist us in comparing the farmer strategy,
with one that assumes a range of precision in forecast (Mjelde et al. 1996)
as an approach to measure the potential impact of accessing climate and
weather forecasts. The objective will be to determine which strategies
(portfolio of economic activities, which included no-farming) perform better
under climatic risk and why. The three years of data from Bolivia will
show household strategies under three different rainfall and frost events.
It will allow us to compare and identify the groups that are most vulnerable
to climatic risk, and will allow us to evaluate the impact of current access
to climatic and weather information. We will know from the study of networks,
social capital and transactions costs which groups of farmers, identified
by the strategies, are able to use information. This evaluation model will
be developed through the end of year two, and will measure actual household
decisions reflected in their portfolio of economic activities. A similar
model will be constructed for the Peru site with the data gathered in year
two. We expect the conditions that facilitate access to weather and climate
information to differ because of distance to market, different crop and
livestock mix, local conditions, government policies, and markets.
Plan of Work: Summary of Yearly Activities and Outputs
Year One
Convene an advisory and expert panel committee
for interdisciplinary research:
Valdivia and Gilles (MU), Quiroz and Hijmans
(CIP), Valdivia and Reinoso (CIRNMA), Lagos (Instituto Geofisico del Peru,
weather forecasts), Jetté (UNDP), and a representative from SINSAAT
(National System of Food Security and Early Warning System in Bolivia),
and a representative from PROINPA will be the core members of this committee.
Members from the National Agrarian University La Molina will be invited
to participate in the second and third year. The purpose of this group
is to review current instruments of data collection to capture more crop
information, as well as indicators of knowledge on climate. The panel will
also discuss integration of the approaches in social sciences, biological
sciences and climate forecast feasibility in to the development of the
models. The panel will assist with the diffusion of information to existing
networks.
J. Gilles, C. Valdivia, C. Jetté and a member of PROINPA will conduct participatory rural appraisal meetings with farmers in the community to identify use of climate and weather information by farmers in San José Llanga building on preliminary studies conducted in 1995. Gather information on their perceived need of climate information and current coping mechanisms.
Prepare instruments for data collection with R. Espejo and field test in the first community to capture production year 1998-1999, as well as ask recall questions on El Niño 97-98 year; field test and apply a survey to 45 households (contingent on resources we could expand this to 45 farms in another location form which previous information exists). Identify strategies in 1998-1999 through cluster analysis, and evaluate the current degree of climatic risk in each group at CIP. Identify institutions, organization and networks at the household level for case study analysis in year two. The principal investigator will spend four weeks in Bolivia on the development of instruments, the participatory rural appraisal, and the field testing of the instruments. She will spend four weeks at the International Potato Center, working with R. Quiroz on the modeling of household strategies with the biological information. The co-investigator will set up the research questions for the study of networks and social capital. If resources allow, we will start identifying the second site in Peru on year one.
Year Two
Expert panel meets to review priorities
for year in light of findings year 1, advise on the qualitative research
in Bolivia, review instruments proposed for data collection in Peru. Assess
initial household strategies in the second community with baseline information
if an initial survey is conducted at the end of year 1 in Peru. Otherwise
apply the household survey to the selected community in Peru identified
in year one. Based on the crop choices, model yields based on potential
forecasts of drought and frost in Peru and Bolivia. Develop case studies
to identify and evaluate transactions costs, the role of social capital,
current networks and sources of information on climate and weather; understand
how these impact on decisions. We will study the groups of farmers and
varieties of crops that may be chosen to improve performance in terms of
productivity under stress (from on-going research conducted by CIRNMA and
PROINPA) to reduce risk.
Process and evaluate the data with CIRNMA experts using the same cluster approach to identify groups households with similar strategies to determine the consistency of the framework. We expect a graduate student at the masters level from the Social Sciences Unit, MU to conduct field research in Bolivia on year two. We will apply to the Brown Fellowship for graduate international experiences provided by the College of Agriculture Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR), to cover travel and research costs. The co-investigator will spend at least three weeks in Bolivia on case studies to gather information about social capital and networks, in order to develop measurable indicators. He will spend one week in the second community, in Peru. The investigator will spend three weeks of field research in Peru in the identified community, and three weeks in Bolivia on the case studies, and two weeks at CIP on data analysis. At the end of the year, R. Quiroz will spend two weeks in the U.S. to evaluate the results of Peru's questionnaire. Outputs from the Bolivia research will be completed at the end of year two regarding both the quantitative analysis of the strategies, as well as the qualitative study on factors that may enhance or facilitate use of climatic information in Bolivia.
Year Three
The method for impact evaluation based
on identified strategies according climate events (actual and simulated),
will be applied to the strategies identified in the Peruvian community.
We will use Logit analysis to identify the characteristics of farmers,
their households, institutions and resources that explain use climatic
information and forecasts in Peru. An interesting question is what has
been the effect of El Niño on decision making. Some believe it to
have decreased production in the region, because of a forecasted drought
that did not occur (Woodman, 1998). We expect a second graduate student
to conduct field research in the identified community in Peru on the institutions,
transactions costs, networks and impediments to use climate information.
We will follow the same approach of seeking funding for field research
and travel for the student from the Brown Fellowship, CAFNR. Household
portfolio economic evaluation as a result of simulated improved weather
information will be conducted by the research group at CIP and in the US.
Case studies in Peru will be completed on transactions costs and networks
with graduate student. If possible we will apply the questionnaire in Peru
one more time to obtain an additional point in time. Finally we will hold
a conference at CIP to share the results of our research with scientific
and policy community.
Relevance
to the goal of the Climate and Global Change Program and the program priorities
The proposed research aims at identifying
how climate, especially drought, affects the portfolio of economics activities,
i.e. the production and market decisions of rural households, as they respond
and adapt to climate variability. Our study will identify groups of the
population that are in the best position to take advantage of climate and
weather information, and understand the constraints they experience. This
research also intends to evaluate, based on current production strategies,
the potential impact of using the climate forecasts. Recommendations will
be developed from the findings, to formulate policies intended to eliminate
current constraints on the use of forecasts. Recommendation will also be
developed on the type of weather and climate reports are useful to agricultural
producers in this region. The announcement of El Niño Event of 1997-1998
and its effect on production will be studied in the region. Reinoso (personal
communication, CIRNMA) mentioned conservative planting after the announcement
of El Niño were taken that decreased production (Woodman, 1998).
Our research will shed light on how rural households and communities currently adjust to climatic variability, evaluate the outcome of current decisions identifying use of climate and weather information, and analyze the institutions that influence their decisions to identify how climate forecast information can be incorporated.
Benefits
to the public and scientific community
We expect our research to advance the
understanding of decision making under uncertain environments and non perfect
functioning markets; we also hope to improve the evaluation methods by
incorporating a household portfolio approach; integrate information generated
from crop and livestock models with forecast predictions to the evaluation
of rural household strategies. Contribute to the knowledge of the role
of non market institutions, networks and organizations in the use of climatic
information and weather forecasts. Contribute information to the community
on the type of weather and climate forecasts that are useful to producers
in the Altiplano region in the production of food crops such as potato
and quinoa.
Linkages
CIRNMA, PNUD, PROINPA, and CIP are institutions
working in the region and devoted to improving the living conditions of
small holder producers and their families in the Andean Altiplano regions
of Bolivia and Peru. As the letter of participation by PNUD indicates this
institution is currently working in a project to strengthen the Bolivian
National System to mitigate and manage disasters, and are at present conducting
an assessment of the damages of El Niño phenomenon is the region.
The International Potato Center is part of the Consortium for the Development
of the Andean Region (CONDESAN),which is a network of institutions working
on the development of this region. CIP is currently developing drought
and frost models for different potato varieties (Hijmans et al.,1997) in
the Andes, and the Department that R. Quiroz leads is working on integrating
biological models to study land use management and sustainability in this
eco-region. We are working with the International Potato Center. Researchers
from CIP have submitted another proposal "Integrated Assessment of ENSO
and Climate Change Impacts on the Andean Agriculture" (Charles Crissman,
Principal Investigator, Roberto Quiroz co-investigator). Our research on
the household approach, decisions and strategies, will inform the research
at CIP, while our project will benefit by diffusion of the results of our
research through the networks they would be strengthening in the region,
and the work on climate models. Both PROINPA and CIRNMA are institutions
that are committed to the development of their regions. Our collaborative
research activities would strengthen both their and our research capacity.
CIP has collaborative relations with both institutions. We have established
collaboration with CIRNMA (see letter of collaboration) and are pursuing
a similar relationship with PROINPA, as they are the institution that will
be working at Patacamaya, site where the Instituto Boliviano de Tecnología
Agropecuaria worked. The latter is going through reforms and will collaborate
with PROINPA.
References
Aldrich, J. H. and F. D. Nelson. Linear
Probability, Logit, and Probit Models. Series: Quantitative Applications
in the Social Sciences. No 45 SAGE University Paper. California. 1984.
Arce, B., C. Aguilar, R. Cañas, and R. Quiroz. "A simulation model of alpaca system in the dry Puna of the Andes." Agricultural Systems. 46:205-225. 1994.
Cañas, R, C. Aguilar, and G. Edwards. "Modelo de simulación de producción ovina para la zona de Puno-Perú." In Arguelles, L. and R. D. Estrada (eds)Perspectivas de la investigación agropecuaria para el Altiplano. PISA- INIAA 1991.
Cañas, R., C. Aguilar, F. García and R. Quiroz. "Simulación de Sistemas Pecuarios" IICA and RISPAL. Serie Ponencias y Resultados de Eventos Técnicos. San Jose Costa Rica. 1992.
Carter, M. R. "Environment, Technology, and the Social Articulation of Risk in West African Agriculture". Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1997.
Ccama, Faustino. La Estructura y Evolución de la Producción Agropecuaria en el Departamento de Puno: Período 1970-1988. Proyecto de Investigación de Sistema Agropecuarios Andinos INIAA PISA. Puno, 1991.
Céspedes, J., and L. Rodríguez. "Evaluación y Pronóstico de la Producción El Punto de Vista del Productor Campesino." Research report, Bolivia SR-CRSP year 16. Mimeograph. 1996.
Coppock, D. L., C. Valdivia, and H. Alzérreca (eds). Sustaining Agropastoralism on the Bolivian Altiplano: The Case of San José Llanga. Forthcoming. Manuscript in preparation to be published by the International Livestock Research Institute.
Cotlear, D. Desarrollo campesino en los andes. Cambio tecnológico y transformación social en las comunidades de la sierra del Perú. Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. Lima. 1989.
Deaton, A. The Analysis of Household Survey. A Microeconometric Approach to Development Policy. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.1997.
Dent, J.B. Potential for systems simulation in farming systems. In: Penning de Vries, F., Teng, P., and Metselaar, K. (eds.) Systems Approaches For Sustainable Agricultural Development. Kluwer Academic Publishers and International Rice Research Institute. P 325-339 .1993.
Dunn, E. J. Céspedes, and C. Valdivia. "Impacts of Cash Crop Expansion on Income Components in an Agropastoral Community of the Bolivian Altiplano." 18th Intl Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Atlanta, 1994.
Dunn, E., N. Kalaitzandonakes and C. Valdivia. "Risk and Impacts of Microenterprise Services" USAID AIMS Project. 1996.
Ellis, F. Peasant Economics and Agrarian Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University. Second Edition. 1993.
Espejo, R. and C. Jetté. "Rol Socioeconomico de la ganadería en una comunidad agropastorial del altiplano central." IBTA 152/Technical Report 20/SR-CRSP 18. 1995.
Fafchamps, M. "Cash Crop Production, Food Price Volatility, and Rural Market Integration in the Third World." Amer. J. of Agr. Econ. 74(February 1992): 90-99.
Francois, C., R. Bosseno, and J. J. Vacher. "Frost risk mapping combining temporally extended in- situ data and spatially extended NOAA/AVHRR satellite data over the Bolivian Altiplano. ORSTOM and INRA. N.d.
Gill, G. J. Seasonality and Agriculture in the Developing World. A Problem of the Poor and Powerless. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1991.
Hatch, J. K. (Ed) Our Knowledge Traditional Farming Practices in Rural Bolivia Vol I: Altiplano Region. Ministry of Agriculture and Peasant Affairs (MACA) Agency for International Development and Rural Development Services. 1981.
Hijmans R. J., W. García, E. Carrasco and A. Devaux. "A Model to simulate the effect of frost damage on potato crops in the Andes/"DME-SUR Progress Report 1996-1997. Mimeograph. 1997.
Huanca, J., L. Markowitz and C. Jetté. "El Proceso de Cambio Tecnológico. Perspectiva de los productores de una comunidad agropastorial. IBTA 158/ Technical report 26. La Paz. 1995.
Kloppenberg, J. "Social theory and the de/reconstruction of agricultural science: Local knowledge for an alternative agriculture." Rural Sociology 56 (4):519-548.
Kervyn, B. La economía campesina del Perú. Teorías y políticas. Centro de Estudios Rurales Andinos "Bartolomé de las Casas." Cusco. 1988.
Kusterer, Ken. "Small-Farmer Attitudes and Aspirations." A.I.D. Program Evaluation Discussion Paper No.26. Washington, 1989.
Low, A. Agricultural Development in South Africa: Farm Household-Economics and the Food Crisis. London: James Currey. 1986.
Martínez, D. "Economía y Producción Campesina en la Sierra." In Valdivia, C. Política económica y ganadería extensiva. El caso de ovinos y camélidos en el Perú. University of Missouri Columbia. Missouri. 1991.
Mjelde, J. W., T. N. Thompson, and C. J. Nixon. "Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts." Amer. Journal of Agr. Economics. 78(Feb 1996): 175-188.
Morduch, J. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing". Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(Summer 1995): 103-114.
Montes de Oca, I. Sistemas de Riego y Agricultura en Bolivia. Ministerio de Asuntos Campesinos y Apropecuarios y Comité Interinstitucional de Riego. Tall. Gráficos Hisbol. La Paz. 1992
Murillo, C. and L. Markowitz. "Food and Nutrition in San José Llanga, an Agropastoral Community in the Central Altiplano of Bolivia." Tech. Rpt. IBTA 173/SR-CRSP 39/La Paz. 1995
Narayan, D. and L. Pritchett. "Cents and Sociability; Household Income and Social Capital in Rural Tanzania." Paper presented at the Fourth Annual World Bank Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development, September 25-27, 1996.
Nicholls, J.M. "Economic and Social Benefits of Climatological Information and Services. A Review of Existing Assessments." WCASP-38. World Climate Programme Applications and Services. WMO/TD-No. 780. World Meteorological Organization. 1996.
Pandey, S., and Hardaker, B. The role of modelling in the quest for sustainable farming systems. Agricultural Systems 47: 439-450. 1995.
Panter-Brick C. and M. Eggerman. "Household Responses to Food Shortages in Western Nepal."Human Organization 56 (2 1997): 190-198.
Pedhazur, E. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. Harcourt Brace College Publishers. Orlando. 1997.
Proyecto de Investigación de Sistemas Agropecuarios Andinos (PISA). 1993. Final Report 1985-92. IDRC-INIAA, Puno.
Queiroz, J. de, D. L. Coppock, H. Alzérreca, and B. E. Norton. "Ecology and Natural Resources of San José Llanga." In Coppock et al (eds), forthcoming.
Quiroz, R., C. León-Velarde, and W. Bowen. Farming systems research from a modeling perspective: Experiences in Latin America. Collinson, M. (ed.) The History of Farming Systems. FAO, In Press. 1998.
Quiroz, R., B. Arce, R. Cañas and C. Aguilar. "Development and use of simulation models in animal production systems research" in Animal production systems research; methodological and analytical guidelines. IDRC/IICA RISPAL. San Jose Costa Rica. Pp. 103-149. 1994.
Reardon, T., C. Delgado and P. Matlon. "Determinants and Effects of Income Diversification Amongst Farm Households in Burkina Faso". The Journal of Development Studies. 28 (January 1992): 264-296.
Robinson, L. and P. Barry. The Competitive Firm's Response to Risk. Macmillian Publishing. 1987.
Rosenzweig, M. and H. Binswanger: New York. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments." In The Economic Journal 103 (Jan 1993): 56-78.
Sadoulet, E. and A. de Janvry. Quantitative Development Policy Analysis. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. 1995.
Sakurai, T. and T. Reardon. "Potential Demand for Drought Insurance in Burkina Faso and Its Determinants"Amer. Journal of Agricultural Economics 79( November 1997): 1193-1207.
Vacher, J. Imaña, E. Los riesgos de sequía y de heladas en el Altiplano Boliviano. Informe ORSTOM-SENAMHI. 30 p.1989.
Valdivia, C. "Household Socioeconomic Diversity and Coping Responses to Drought at San José Llanga." in Coppock et al. (Eds) forthcoming.
Valdivia, C., E. Dunn and C. Jetté. "Diversification as a Risk Management Strategy in an Andean Agropastoral Community." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78 (December 1996): 1329-1334.
Valdivia, C. and C. Jetté. "Peasant Households in Semi-Arid San Jose: Confronting Risk Through Diversification Strategies." IBTA 181/Technical Report 49/SR-CRSP 47. 1996.
Valdivia, C. and C. Jetté. "La Diversificación en los Andes: Estrategias de riesgo o crecimiento económico en el altiplano central boliviano." Paper presented at the Third Latin American Symposium on Research and Extension of Agricultural Systems. Lima Peru, August, 1998.
Valdivia C. and M.F. Nolan. "Sociological and Economic Analysis of Small Ruminant Production Systems." Small Ruminant Collaborative Research Support Program Annual Report. University of Missouri-Columbia. 1996.
van Haeften, Roberta. "Food Security Update". LAC Tech Bulletin no 15. March 1996a.
van Haeften, Roberta. "Peru Food Security Strategy". LAC Tech Bulletin No.16 April 1996b.
Wall, E., G. Ferrazzi and F. Schryer. 1998. "Getting the Goods on Social Capital"Rural Sociology 63 (2): 300-322.
Washington-Allen, R. "Historical Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Bolivian Altiplano: A Remote Sensing Perspective." Unpublished Masters Thesis, Range Science Department, Utah State University. 1993.
Woodman, R. P. "El Niño 1997-1998: Situación reciente y futura. Instituto Geofísico del Perú. (www.igp.gob.pe/elnino.html) June, 1997.
Woodman, R. P. "Pronóstico de lluvias basado en los pronósticos de TSM de NOAA/NCEP: Ciudad de Piura." (Www.igp.gob.pe/enero.htm). 1998.