XVII. Implied Covariance Matrix

For the purposes of parallelism with the previous handout, what we're interested in doing is filling in the elements of the variance/covariance matrix for the researcher's data.

  1. Researcher's Variance/Covariance Matrix

Variables

A

B

C

A

?

?

?

B

?

?

?

C

?

?

?

Variances of the predictor variables.

As you would expect, the slings associated with A and B are the variances of these two predictors. I.e.:

Path Diagram

That is:

Implied Variance/Covariance Matrix

means that:

  1. Researcher's Variance/Covariance matrix.

 

A

B

C

A

25

?

?

B

?

100

?

C

?

?

?

Covariances between predictor variables.

Similarly, the sling between the predictors is the covariance.

Diagram

So this sling:

Implied Variance/Covariance matrix

Means that:

  1. Researcher's Variance/Covariance matrix.

 

A

B

C

A

25

25

?

B

25

100

?

C

?

?

?

Correlation between A and B . By extention, of course, you can now compute the correlation between A and B given this information so far. It is simply: (Which is comforting, because that's the value we had for the original correlation matrix.)

Covariance of Predictor A with Criterion C.

The covariance of A with C follows the same rules as before.

Unique & Shared Components

Specifically, the model says that the covariance of variables A and C in the model is a sum of two components:

  1. Unique component of A in predicting C.

This is calculated by taking the sling of 25 associated with A and multiplying that by the path coefficient from A to C. i.e.:

  1. "Shared" Component of A and B in predicting C

The additional covariation of A with C occurs by virtue of A's being related to B. I.e.:

Implied Variance/Covariance Matrix

Or, in terms of the table we are constructing:

  1. Researcher's Variance/Covariance matrix.

 

A

B

C

A

25

25

48.75

B

25

100

?

C

48.75

?

?

Covariance of Predictor B with Criterion C.

This follows the same procedure as described above. In pictures:

Unique & Shared Components

The covariance of variables B and C in the model is a sum of two components:

  1. Unique component of B in predicting C.

This is calculated by taking the sling of 100 (the variance) associated with B and multiplying that by the path coefficient from B to C. i.e.:

  1. "Shared" Component of A and B in predicting C

The additional covariation o A with C occurs by virtue of A's being related to B. I.e.:

Implied Variance/Covariance Matrix

Or, in terms of the table we are constructing:

  1. Researcher's Variance/Covariance matrix.

 

A

B

C

A

25

25

48.75

B

25

100

105

C

48.75

105

?

Variance of the Endogenous Variable.

The variance of the endogenous variable proceeds the same as for the correlation above. We again use our little "airplane" to "take off" from C and return to C by use of the path diagrams. I.e.:

Variance in Criterion C explained by A

Consider, for starters, variance components involving the path from A to C. To do this we "skip out" of C on the path and then return to C by two ways:

  1. Unique component due to A.

We grab the sling which is the variance of A (25) and return the way we came on 1.2 i.e.:

  1. Shared Component with B.

Next, we skip out on the 1.2 again and return to C this time by way of the path from B to C:

Variance in C explained by B.

Now we will consider the same paths, but this time involving skipping out on the path from B to C.

  1. Unique Component Due to B.

First off, we consider skipping out on .75, taking the sling of 100 at B and returning the way we came, i.e.,

  1. Shared Component with A.

Now we skip out again and this time take the sling between A and B and return on the path from A to C. I.e.:

Variance in C accounted for. Notice that the quantity that we have computed so far his one that we have seen before in multiple regression. It is the variability in C accounted for by A and B. (known in notational form as:

We can, using this quantity, calculate the proportion of variability in C accounted for by A and B, (known notationally as: ) by dividing this quantity by the total amount of variability in C. For our example this is: which is a comforting value, because it is exactly what we got when we were calculating this proportion using the standardized values.

Error Variance of C.

Now we consider the path involved by skipping out on the path from X (the error term ) to C. This quantity, is going to be the remaining variability in C not accounted for in the model. I.e.,

  1. Unique "Contribution" of Error

We skip out on the number 1, take the sling at X and return the way we came. I.e.

As before, we could just have easily have found the same quantity had the researcher published a model in which the error variance was set to 1 and a path estimated from it to the dependent variable. I.e.:

Implied Variance of C

Either way, we are now in a position to fill in the last element of the variance/covariance matrix. I.e.:

  1. Researcher's Variance/Covariance matrix.

 

A

B

C

A

25

25

48.75

B

25

100

105

C

48.75

105

225